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Friday, September 14, 2012

Stafford Act Declarations 1953-2011: Trends and Analyses, and Implications for Congress



Bruce R. Lindsay
Analyst in American National Government

Francis X. McCarthy
Analyst in Emergency Management Policy


The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act authorizes the President to issue declarations that provide states and localities with a range of federal assistance in response to natural and man-made incidents. Since 1953 the number of declarations issued each year has steadily increased. For example, the average number of major disaster declarations issued from 1960 to 1969 was roughly 18 per year. In contrast, the average number of major disaster declarations issued from 2000 to 2009 was 56 per year. The highest number was declared in 2011, with 99 major disaster declarations.

Declarations are of congressional concern for at least two reasons: (1) scrutiny of the budget has led to an awareness of expenditures for disaster assistance, and (2) some are skeptical that declarations are solely made to provide disaster relief. They argue that declarations have become political tools—especially during election years—to gain political favor. Advocates of this position point to incidents which, in their view, could have been handled without federal assistance.

This report describes the declaration process and the types of declarations that can be declared under the Stafford Act: (1) Fire Management Assistance Grants, (2) emergencies, and (3) major disasters.

The discussion is followed by an analysis of each type of declaration that has been issued, and denied from 1953 to 2011. The analysis concludes that


  • from 1953 to 2011 major disaster declarations averaged roughly 35 per year. However, the number of declarations being issued each decade has been increasing, particularly in the past two decades. From 1990 to 1999 there was an average of 46 major disasters declared each year, and from 2000 to 2009, there was an average of 64 per year; 
  • from 1974 to 2011 there has been an average of 8.4 emergency declarations issued each year. Emergency declarations have also increased in the past two decades. From 1990 to 1999 there was an average of 6 emergency declarations issued each year, and from 2000 to 2009, there was an average of 15 issued per year; 
  • from 1970 to 2011 the average number of Fire Management Assistance Grants issued was 19. From 1990 to 1999 the average issued each year was 21. This average grew over the next decade to 54; 
  • most disaster declarations are for flooding, storms, hurricanes, and winter storms; 
  • most emergency declarations are for snow related events, followed by hurricanes, droughts, and fires; 
  • there is a slight increase in the number of declarations issued in presidential election years, but the number is not significant enough to draw a decisive conclusion regarding their use as a political tool. 

The analysis is followed by a discussion concerning the possible causes for the increase, including federal policy changes, increases in severe weather incidents, population growth, and development.

Some may contend that declarations should not be changed because they trigger important federal assistance to states and localities. Others may argue that policy mechanisms should be implemented to reduce either the number of declarations being issued each year, or the amount of federal assistance that they provide, or both. These policy mechanisms include


  • implementing certain amendments to the Stafford Act; 
  • changing the per capita threshold formula used to recommend the issuance of a declaration; 
  • implementing a state capacity indicator to assess whether the state is capable of addressing an incident on its own; 
  • implementing an expert panel to assess whether an incident warrants a declaration; 
  • substituting federal loans to states for recovery for grants; and 
  • adjusting the federal to state cost share. 

This report concludes that such changes could reduce federal spending on disaster assistance and shift a portion of the funding back to the states. On the other hand, limiting federal disaster assistance could hamper the ability of states and localities to adequately recover from an incident and create long-term consequences.

Date of Report: August 31, 2012
Number of Pages: 33
Order Number: R42702
Price: $29.95

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